The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probability of events in play / By A. De Moivre.

  • Moivre, Abraham de, 1667-1754.
Date:
1718
Catalogue details

Licence: Public Domain Mark

Credit: The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probability of events in play / By A. De Moivre. Source: Wellcome Collection.

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    tv ere winners, to have thirty two St ikes returned, including their own ; in fie ad of which they having but eight and Twenty, it iv as very plain that on the Single account of the at]advantage cf the Play, they left one eighth part of all the Money they play’d for. But the Mafier of the Ball maintained that they had no reafon to complain; ft nee he would under t ake that any particular point of the Ball fhould come up in two and Twenty Throws ; of this he would offer to lay a Wager, and actually laid it when required. The feeming contradiction between the Odds of one and thirty to One, and Twenty two lhrows for any Chance to come up, fo perplexed the Adventurers, that they begun to think the Advantage was on their fide; for which reafon they playd on and continued to lofe, The Doclrine of Chances may likewife be a help to cure a KJnd of Super [lit ion, which has been of long [landing in the World, viz. that there is in Play fuch a thing as Luclf, good or bad. I own there are a great many judicious people, who without any other Afiifiance than that of their own reafon, are fatisfied, that the Notion of Luck is meerly Chimerical; yet I conceive that the ground they have to look upon it as fuch9 may [till be farther inforced from fome of the following Confix derations. If by faying that a Man has had good Luck, nothing more was meant than that he has been generally a Gainer at play, the Expreffion might be allowed as very proper in a fhort way of [peaking: But if the Word good Luck be underjlood to fignifie a certain predominant quality, fo inherent in a Man, that he mufl win whenever he Plays, or at leafi win oftner than lofe, it may be denied that there is any fuch thing in nature. The AJferters of Luck are very Jure from their own Experi¬ ence, that at fome times they have been very Lucky, and that at other times they have had a prodigious run of ill Luck again ft them, which whilfi it continued obliged them to be very cautious in engaging with the fortunate; but how Chance [bould produce thofe extraordinary Events, is what they cannot conceive; They would be glad for lnflance to be Satisfied, how they could lofe Fifteen Games together at Piquet, if ill Luck had not firangely prevailed againfi them. But if they will be pleafed to confidtr the Rules delivered in this Book, they will fee that tho’ the Odds aga 'mfi their lofing fo many times together be very great