Vaccination considered in relation to the public health : with inquiries and suggestions thereon. A letter addressed to the Right Honourable the Lord Viscount Morpeth, First Commissioner of Her Majesty's Woods & Forests. / By John Marshall.

  • John Marshall
Date:
MDCCCXLVII
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Licence: Public Domain Mark

Credit: Vaccination considered in relation to the public health : with inquiries and suggestions thereon. A letter addressed to the Right Honourable the Lord Viscount Morpeth, First Commissioner of Her Majesty's Woods & Forests. / By John Marshall. Source: Wellcome Collection.

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    registered mortality was, in 1841, 6368; and in 1842, only 2715,—the average being nearly 4550/ Again, in the metropolis only, in the year before the operation of the Act, viz., in 1840, the mortality was 1235 ; in the three succeeding years, viz., 1841, 1842, and 1843, it was 1053, 360, and 438—that is, on an average, 617 annually. This very marked decrease in the mortality from small-pox observed in the metropolis, and also throughout England and Wales, subsequently to the year 1840, was described by Mr. Farr, (see Registrar-General’s Sixth Report, p. 504,) as “ probably the result, at least in part, of the Vaccination Act; which has not, however,” he adds, “ effected all the good that may be anticipated, as an epidemic has since 1842 broken out in the metropolis, and proved fatal to great numbers.” Inf act, the mortality in the metropolis from this disease rose, in 1844, as high as 1804,—in 1845, it was still 909,—and in 1846, it fell down to 257,—the annual average being about 990. The qualification expressed by Mr. Farr concerning the influence of the Vaccination Act has thus been sadly justified by the returns of 1844 and 1815; and there can be no doubt that there is another cause, cooperating with vaccination, (even though that practice were increased by a temporary feeling of alarm,) which serves to explain the remarkable diminution of deaths from small-pox, in the metropolis, during the years 1842 and 1843, and especially in 1846. The returns for the several years, from 1840 to 1846 inclu¬ sive, are, as already stated—1235, 1053; 360, 438; 1804, 909; and 257; so that they exhibit alternate periods of high and low mortality, consisting of two years each. Now, the victims of any particular epidemic visitation of small-pox are, as is well known, principally, nay, almost entirely, drawn from that portion of the population in which vaccination has never been performed. Each fatal case of this kind must be under¬ stood (according to the computed rate of mortality amongst the unvaccinated, viz., one in four) to represent at least three other * The numbers for the later years have not been abstracted by the Registrar- General. The probability is, that they would show a much higher rate of mortality; but in the ensuing calculations, the number 4550 has been adopted.
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