Environmental futures.

  • Great Britain. Office of Science and Technology
Date:
1999
Catalogue details

Licence: Open Government Licence

Credit: Environmental futures. Source: Wellcome Collection.

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    SCENARIO 4: LOCAL STEWARDSHIP the countryside, and the need to preserve land for agricultural production, lead to urban development which is dense, multifunctional and includes alternative Energy The exploitation of local energy resources, whether fossil or non-fossil fuel, is a particular feature of this scenario. A wide range of renewable energy technologies, including wind, biomass, photovoltaics and small-scale hydro are exploited. However, returns to scale are more limited than in the ‘global sustainability’ scenario because a more diverse set of options is pursued. Locally based combined heat and power schemes flourish. Green tariffs are taken up by environmentally conscious consumers and reinforce more formal regulatory controls. High energy prices will lead to adoption of energy efficiency measures and, in some areas, small-scale nuclear power develops, partly as a route to energy independence. This is the only scenario in which energy demand falls, as well as becoming less carbon intensive. Transport There is emphasis on avoiding the need to travel, and on walking and cycling, with the planning system used to ensure that facilities are available close to people’s homes. By 2010, co-operative car-sharing, home deliveries and traffic management schemes begin to reduce absolute car ownership. By 2025, cars based on alternative technologies (fuel cells, electricity, hybrids) are the norm for shorter journeys. Longer journeys tend to be made by mass transit systems (rail, bus and by air) many of which are publicly owned or managed. International freight movements level off as trade in goods stagnates. Tourism and leisure activities tend to be undertaken closer to home. Construction A conservationist ethic and low levels of investment lead to the survival of traditional housing. Social stability also means that demand for new housing is lower. There is increased investment in energy/water efficiency measures which can be locally based, like CHP and dry, vacuum-powered, local sewage systems. The construction industry continues to be dominated by small firms but the skill base is greatly enhanced, leading to efficiency gains and higher quality. Agriculture and Food The main goal of agricultural policy is to support a broader social yearning for local self-sufficiency and what are seen to be traditional farming practices. The major retailers lose market share to other supply routes, including farmers’ markets and local shopping, while sales of exotic fruits and out-of-season vegetables decline. Agriculture is heavily subsidised, to protect both food security and local landscapes. Research and technical support enable farmers to adopt approaches which reduce pesticide inputs radically and there is a rapid growth in organic farming. Demand for meat continues to fall and broader support for animal rights brings an end to the transport of live animals over long distances.
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