An attempt to determine the influence of the seasons and weather on sickness and mortality.

  • William Augustus Guy
Date:
[1843?]
Catalogue details

Licence: Public Domain Mark

Credit: An attempt to determine the influence of the seasons and weather on sickness and mortality. Source: Wellcome Collection.

Provider: This material has been provided by The Royal College of Surgeons of England. The original may be consulted at The Royal College of Surgeons of England.

    19/20 page 19
    sickness, except that the mortality of the third quarter exceeded that of the fourth. 7. The diseases which chiefly influenced the order of the quarters in respect of mortality, were those of the chest, to which may be added, as following the same order, the decay of nature in the aged.* 8. The order of the seasons in respect of sickness and mortality differs year by year, and does not admit of being reduced to any precise rule. 9. As a general rule, but one admitting of many exceptions, it may be stated, that the amount of sickness tends to vary directly, and the amount of mortality inversely as the temperature. These results must be received with some reserve, as they are founded on a comparatively small number of facts; but they are probably not very far from the truth. At any rate they may prove suggestive of future enquiries, founded upon a broader basis. At present the materials for a comprehensive theory of the influence of the seasons and weather upon sickness and mortality are wanting, and are not likely to be sup- plied till the example set by one or two public hospitals and dispensaries shall have provoked imitation. In the mean time the present attempt, if it accomplish no other purpose, may serve as an example of the mode by which such enquiries must be conducted. In the course of this enquiry it is scarcely possible, that some hypo- thesis should not have suggested itself as the most likely to prove true; and it may not be amiss to bring this attempt to a conclusion, by stating in few words that which I have been led to form. The causes of sickness are twofold, consisting of atmospheric changes which may be submitted to measurement, and of certain more subtle changes in the composition of the air, which at present can neither be analysed nor estimated. To the former class belong the temperature, moisture, and pressure of the air; to the latter those emanations from the earth or from human beings themselves, which give rise to the majority of epidemic, endemic, and contagious diseases. As the number of cases of sickness produced by these latter causes is generally considerable, the influence of the pressure, temperature, and hygrometric state of the air will not be observed in those years in which these causes are in opera- tion ; but in the absence of epidemics, the temperature will be found to be the most influential cause of sickness. When the temperature of the summer is high, there will be such an amount of sickness in the summer months as to cause a large return of sickness for the entire year; so, on the other hand, a severe winter will swell the total sickness of the year, by producing a great excess of affections of the organs of respiration. A summer or winter of unusual length, beginning early and ending late, will also cause an increase of sickness on the entire year, but the nature of the sickness will be different as the temperature is higher or lower than usual. The order of the seasons in respect of sickness will also be mainly determined by the degree in which the temperature of these seasons exceeds, or falls short of, the average temperature. The mortality, in like manner, in non-epidemic years will be chiefly dependent upon the temperature, varying in the several seasons inversely * It is well known that the most common cause of death in the aged, is an affec- tion of the lungs, called “ bronchitis senilis.”
    digitised image 1
    digitised image 2
    digitised image 3