The elements of vital statistics / by Arthur Newsholme.

  • Arthur Newsholme
Date:
1899
Catalogue details

Licence: Public Domain Mark

Credit: The elements of vital statistics / by Arthur Newsholme. Source: Wellcome Collection.

    21/380 (page 7)
    The most serious error, however, occurs in regard to occupations. Thus master and servant are commonly confused. In th& census schedule of 1891 three new columns Avere placed, headed respec- tively employer, employed, and neither em^Dloyer nor, employed, but the results obtained from this attempt at classifi- cation are regarded by Dr. Ogle as very untrustworthy.* Estimates of Population require to be made in the intervals between each census and the next succeeding one. Several methods of varying accuracy have been proposed. 1. The natural increase, that is, the excess of births over deaths since the last census, being knoAvn, it Avould theoretically be possible, if one knew the amount of emigration and immigration, to state the population in any given year. In this country accurate infor- mation as to migration has not hitherto been available; and it is difficult to conceive that such information can ever become avail- able under modern conditions of life in respect of the inter- migration which occurs between the communities in different parts of the country. 2. The population at the census enumerations in April, 1881 and 1891, being known, it is assumed that the rate of increase is in arithmetical 2^i'ogression; i.e., that the same annual increase continues during each year. Thus, given a population in April, 1881, of 32,000, in April, 1891, of 36,000, to find the mean population in 1898. 36000-32000 — = 400 = annual increase. 100 = increase from April to Midsummer. Therefore mean population in 1898 = 36000 + 400 x 7 + 100 = 38900. This method is most fallacious, as it makes no allowance for the increased number of parents year by year, owing to steadily- increasing numbers who year by year attain marriageable age. It assumes, hi other words, sunple interest when compound interest is really in action. 3. The Eegistrar-General's method, the one generally adopted, assumes that the same rate of increase will hold good as in the * Census Report, 1891, vol. iv. p. 36.